Category Archives for Uncategorized

Post-Mortem on a BBY Covered Combo

  Hello, Friends. It’s helpful to go back over trades from time to time. Reviewing winners is normally pleasant, but I find that I learn more from the ones that got away. The trade that I would like to discuss today was an odd hybrid; a trade that produced a small profit despite some poor […]

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Closing A Short EUR/GBP Trade (Profitably)

Hello, Friends. On August 15, a post here suggested establishing short positions in EUR/GBP around the spot level at the time, 0.8025, with a stop above 0.8050 and an initial profit target of 0.7955. Since that was posted, the high in the pair has been 0.8027,  and the profit objective was achieved earlier today, for a […]

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There’s Added Event Risk Today (Twice)

Hello, Friends. We have a couple of extra features today, in the form of potentially important, and market-moving, speeches by Fed Chair Yellen and European Central Bank President Draghi. Dr. Yellen’s speech will be delivered at a breakfast, 10 AM EST, while Dr. Draghi waits until the dessert plates are brought in, at 2:30 EST. […]

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Quick Notes on EUR/GBP, FOMC

Hello, Friends. Currencies generally respond quickly to changes in the market’s perception of future interest rate differentials. My current favorite short, EUR/GBP, had a rough day yesterday as inflation data seemed to indicate that interest rate hikes might be farther off than previously anticipated. All is forgiven this morning, as the minutes from the Monetary […]

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A Suggested Adjustment for Short EUR/GBP Positions

Hello, Friends. Here’s hoping that everything is going well, and that all of your trades are displayed in green. On Friday last, it was suggested that a short EUR/GBP position from around the spot level at the time (.8025) had a reasonable ratio of potential reward to risk. That view was based on recent economic […]

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Technical Trading and Fundamentals

Hello, Friends. In my neck of the woods, it’s Sunday evening, a good time to review trades from the previous week and prepare for the week ahead. Almost all of my trades are taken on the basis of technicals, but a lot of my initial ideas come from reading about fundamentals. That’s the result of years of […]

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More Data Than Motion in EUR/USD (With a Move in NZD/USD)

Good Morning (EST), Friends. There was a fair amount of data released overnight, and therefore at least the possibility of some significant movement in currencies. On balance, the response was disappointing from a trading standpoint. While Eurozone GDP growth for the second quarter came in at flat, versus expectations of a 0.1% gain, and Germany’s […]

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Rethinking Cable

  Good Morning, Friends. The Pound has taken a bit of a tumble this morning, with Cable (GBP/USD) losing roughly half a percent, a large move in these placid times. There was a flurry of employment data this morning; while most of the figures came in close to the market’s consensus expectations, wage growth was […]

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A Change of Tone in AUD

Good Morning (EST), Friends, and Happy Friday. It has been great to get some volatility and two-way action back into the equity markets, and there have been pockets of interest in currencies. There was some news out of Asia overnight; China, which has the ability to move currencies with its economic reports, released balance of […]

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With Central Banks Out of the Way, A Look at Charts

Good Morning, Friends. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their respective benchmark interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. However, Australia released July unemployment figures that have market participants recalculating the outlook for Reserve Bank policy. An unemployment rate of 6% was expected, with the number coming in at 6.4%, a pretty […]

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